After Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivered one of his most confronting messages to Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded to his flatly rejecting her request for additional EU financial support for Ukraine. In a letter consisting of five sharply worded points—made public on the politico.eu website on Saturday—Orbán accused the Commission of following an “illusion-based” policy regarding the war and urged EU leaders to stop holding out what he called “unrealistic expectations” of Kyiv.
Orbán’s letter is an absolute indication that he does not agree with what is said. In the first paragraph of his letter, he states that the EU is at a “moment of truth” when it is hard to keep the financial war against the eastern aggressor. “New financial demands of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict are making us face reality,” he said. “Honest talk is a lot better and making decisions now is a lot better than continuing with the policy of illusions which your Commission has unfortunately pursued so far.”
It continues with an all-encompassing assault not only of the Commission’s financial proposal but also of the EU’s strategy for the conflict.
“Ukraine cannot win this war on the battlefield”
The first part of Orbán’s reasoning is the most controversial. He states that, with about 20 percent of its land taken, Ukraine has no way to achieve military victory. He points out that extending the war will mean more pain, death, and destruction and, therefore, while acknowledging that Ukraine can decide to continue fighting, he says that the EU has no obligation to “support and finance an unwinnable conflict.”
This argument is in direct opposition to that of the Commission, a majority of EU governments, and NATO allies which argue that the key to Ukraine’s success on the battlefield is the continuation of Western aid.
Calls for a US-led peace initiative—and talks with Russia
Orbán’s second argument supports the idea of a peaceful resolution. He believes the only way to stop the fighting and quickly reach a peace agreement is through a ceasefire. He is sure that Europeans should “immediately and unconditionally” support a peace plan presented by the U.S. president. Besides this, he suggests that the EU should open talks with Russia, which most of the member states have been reluctant to do since the invasion in February 2022.
This clear support for U.S.-led peace efforts, combined with an invitation to have talks with Moscow, is one of the most apparent differences that Orbán has with the EU mainstream since the conflict began.
EU must prepare for the “post-war” world—without relying on Ukraine
In his third point, Orbán contends that Europe has to start thinking about a post-war scenario and not by delivering more weapons to Ukraine but rather by strengthening Europe itself. He maintains that Europe’s security “cannot be based on Ukraine and the Ukrainian army,” whose he points out will be the future is uncertain. The way he sees it, EU countries should be building up their own military capacities instead of depending on the Ukrainian army.
What he means here is very clear: the EU rethinks its strategy and focuses more on itself rather than racking up debts in Ukraine’s defense, which is a continuous practice.
Hungary will block all additional EU funding for Ukraine
Fourth point, a sharp one. According to Orbán, Hungary “does not support the European Union sending any further financial aid to Ukraine in any form.” He goes on to say that Hungary will not be involved in such activities, and neither will it give its consent to facilitate their progress in the EU.
Since EU financial decisions are made on a unanimous basis, Orbán’s stance is equivalent to threatening to veto any new support package thus jeopardizing the smooth-running of EU Ukraine strategy.
Citing corruption, Orbán demands audits and tougher conditions
At last, Orbán charges what he refers to as the “latest chapter of Ukrainian corruption” in the letter. He is of the opinion that von der Leyen’s proposals lack inclusive audits as well as stricter regulations for the issuance of aid. According to him, not having such measures in place signifies a very serious violation of trust.
He ends the letter by warning that continuing on the present path may lead the EU to a crisis. “It is a lot better to recognize your mistake in time and turn back from the dead end,” he writes, at the same time wishing the Commission president “strength and courage” in her forthcoming decisions.
The position taken by Orbán here is a prelude to a critical confrontation in Brussels which, besides determining the EU political unity, might influence its long-term role in the war next door.
